2007 AFC East Roundtable Discussion
July 27th, 2007 by Corey Griffin(Note: I was going to write my season preview today but this seems to fit the bill and I worry I’d only end up repeating myself in the preview. If anyone has any questions about anything I said or didn’t say then just email me and I’ll post them and answer them as soon as possible.)
A running series here at Sports Cartel (Green Machine’s parent company) is a series of questions posed to each divisional writer at segmented points of the season. Entering the weekend before AFC East teams report to camp, the first AFC East Roundtable Discussions begins with these six questions:
1. What did the Jets do this off-season to improve?
It was a very successful off-season for the Jets. Although not nearly as flashy as the big signings of AFC East big brother New England, the Jets spent most of the off-season as they did the 2006 season; quietly improving piece by piece and day by day.
Offensively, the trade acquisition of former Chicago Bears running back Thomas Jones is the most obvious addition. Jones rushed for 2,545 yards and 15 touchdowns over the past two seasons, and most importantly ran for 301 yards in three playoff games in helping to lead the Bears to an N.F.C. Championship and Super Bowl XLI berth.
However, the addition of Jones is not simply about his lavish, impressive numbers or his gaudy, bulging biceps, both of which engulf local tabloids with fervor as camp nears. Instead, Jones’ addition brings balance to an offense that had none and piece of mind to a quarterback (Comeback Player of the Year Chad Pennington) and an offensive coordinator (emerging head coaching candidate Brian Schottenheimer) who spent most of the 2006 season having to fabricate an offense with pre-snap shifts, audibles, and a “controlled no-huddle.” Despite Leon Washington’s surprising rookie season (4 touchdowns and a team-leading 650 yards), the lack of a true ground game robbed Pennington and Schottenheimer of their greatest weapon; the play fake.
With Jones in the backfield teams will be forced to respect the Jets ability to run until they prove otherwise incapable. As I’ve written in my quarterbacks preview for 2007, this will force defenses to play their linebackers and safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, which will leave openings in the middle of the field for Laveranues Coles and emerging weapons Jerricho Cotchery and tight end Chris Baker.
Schottenheimer, notoriously creative, is surely foaming at the mouth at the thought of being able to put Coles, Cotchery and second-year “x-factor” Brad Smith on the field with Washington and Jones in the backfield.
The bottom line is that the addition of Jones allows the Jets to attack with the rush, the pass and some of Schottenheimer’s favorite gadget plays involving Smith and Washington. For those familiar with basketball terminology, the addition of Jones allows the Jets offense to permanently be in the “triple-threat” position.
Defensively, the Jets improvement was two-pronged, with both coming from the annual rite of spring that is the N.F.L. Draft.
First, the Jets traded up to the 14th spot to select University of Pittsburgh cornerback Darrelle Revis, a potential shutdown corner with outstanding playmaking skills. The Jets again traded up to pick Michigan inside linebacker David Harris 47th overall, 15th in the second round.
The two selections address two of the Jets biggest holes on defense (the other being a run-stuffing, 330 pound nose guard) and allow head coach Eric Mangini and second-year defensive coordinator Bob Sutton to transition further into their 3-4 hybrid defensive scheme.
The Jets would love for Revis to assume the starting corner role opposite returning starter Andre Dyson. As I said earlier in the week, Revis is the rare blend of speed and physicality that the Jets system craves. He is unafraid to trade blows with bigger receivers at the line of scrimmage and his good speed and fluid hips allow him to stay with the smaller, quicker wideouts. Although some would call him undersize at just a tad under six foot, Revis’ athletic ability allows him to make plays on the ball one would not expect a player of his size to make.
However, Revis’ ability to start early could end up being his biggest asset. Four different players started opposite Dyson last year and none proved able of holding the task. Opposing teams often ran their better receivers in motion or set them in the slot to set up mismatches against journeyman corner Hank Poteat or still-struggling corner Justin Miller. Then-rookie Drew Coleman also saw time on Dyson’s other side and while he showed flashes, he is better suited learning in a backup role. If Revis could start and contribute immediately it would make the Jets a deeper team defensively and allow a player such as Poteat or David Barrett to play more comfortably in a nickel or dime role.
Harris projects as an ideal inside-the-box defender who will immediately help the Jets in their run defense. For a defense that ranked in the bottom third of the league last year in stopping the run, that is a huge addition. Slotting in next to Jonathon Vilma, Harris’ large frame would allow Vilma to avoid taking on the guards and fullbacks that often tormented him in 2006.
Also, Harris would help the Jets in allowing them to move veteran Eric Barton to a backup/situational role. Last year, Barton looked out of place playing inside next to Vilma and provided little to no relief in obvious run situations. If Harris is able to supplant Barton on 1st and 2nd down, Barton would be better served playing in the middle in obvious passing situations when guards and centers are less likely to enter the second level and put to use his solid pass-rushing skills.
Both Revis and Harris are smart, instinctive players who fit immediate needs for the Jets and could provide instant relief, much the way Vilma did in his rookie campaign. Although it’s unreasonable to expect Pro Bowl seasons from the rookie duo, it’s not unreasonable to expect them to be solid contributors on a much improved defense and a quietly much improved team
2. What key players did the Jets lose that you wish they kept?
This all depends on whether Pete Kendall will still be manning the left guard spot when the season opens. If Kendall is gone, then there is no question that he is the biggest loss the Jets will face. Lacking a true successor, either short-term or long-term, the Jets would certainly be “in the weeds” if they were to part ways with Kendall. They would be forced to start fourth-year lineman Adrien Clarke most likely, a castoff from Philadelphia.
Last season, Kendall was a steadying influence on a line with three new starters, two of them rookies surrounding him on either side. His guidance allowed for rookie center Nick Mangold to assume the starting center role with relative ease and develop into a mainstay for the foreseeable future. He also assisted in the development of (hopeful) franchise left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson and his presence on the Ferguson’s right side often kept rushers from bouncing inside Ferguson’s right shoulder to attack Pennington.
It’s been well-stated that Kendall wants a new contract or at least a raise, but the Jets are unwilling to give him one, stating they do not renegotiate deals with more than one year remaining (regardless of rumors they did so last year for Coles).
At this point, it’s an obvious stalemate with neither side seemingly ready to blink. The Jets are afraid to release him because of rumors that he would immediately sign with the Miami Dolphins. However, teams refuse to trade for the 34-year-old because they know the Jets have no choice but to release him if Kendall holds out.
If the Jets blink first, and Kendall gets his wish and is released or traded, then the Jets biggest loss would be offensive lineman Trey Teague. Teague, able at all spots on the offensive line, would have potentially been the first replacement for Kendall, but the Jets parted ways with him after he broke his leg in training camp last year and was slow to recover. Then again, Teague’s loss is still minimal and outside of him, the Jets lost no one of real significance.
3. Going into the season, what do you see as the Jets biggest weakness?
The biggest weakness is once again the same it was last year; the Jets’ inability to stop the run. Although they were undoubtedly a stingier defense on a whole in the second half of the year, they still finished the year 24th against the run, allowing a horrendous 130 yards a game on the ground.
The reasons for the defensive lapse are multiple. First, defensive tackle Dewayne Robertson struggled in the first half of the season to adapt to his new assignments as a nose guard in the 3-4 scheme and far two often was overwhelmed by bigger, stronger offensive linemen. When that happened, the linemen gobbled up Vilma and Barton and opposing running backs were often given clear holes into the second level.
Also, 3-4 defensive end import Kimo von Oelhoffen proved to be nothing more than a situational backup player, miscast in his role as a starter opposite end Shaun Ellis. His age clearly showed and the line was often playing as if it were Ellis against the world.
However, as the season progressed, Robertson became more comfortable in his surroundings and became stronger at the point of attack against the bigger guards and centers he drew. With the return of bigger, stouter nose guard Sione Pouha, the interior of the Jets defensive line could be improved, relatively speaking, which would in turn have a domino effect on Ellis, von Oelhoffen and Dallas Cowboys import defensive end Kenyon Coleman. The addition of Harris could also be a big help to stopping the run,
In order for this year to be a success, the Jets will need to control the line of scrimmage and prevent teams from pounding the defense up the middle; much like the Patriots did in running for a combined 448 yards in their three games against the Jets. If they cannot are they are again a rag-doll against the run, then Jets fans will be in for a much rougher season than last. The schedule is tougher and the Jets face vaunted rushing attacks in New England (twice), Baltimore, Washington, Cincinnati, and Kansas City.
4. Going in to the season, what do you see as the Jets biggest strength?
Coaching, plain and simple. The special teams is very good and the running game, improved, but as is the case for most teams that overachieve, the Jets success can be traced to a knowledgeable, creative coaching staff unafraid to take risks.
Eric Mangini was prescribed as Bill Belichick Jr. when assuming the role of head coach last spring. While his injury updates and press conference behavior surely would have made Bill proud, Mangini proved that he was not merely a Belichick clone.
He blared music at practices to simulate crowd noise, forced the Jets to practice in the rain before a game against New England to emulate likely conditions for the weekend, and turned Hempstead into a high school math classroom, complete with pop quizzes. His use of guest lectures (Teddy Atlas before New England comes to mind) and distinct application of boxing to the rigors of football were refreshing and unique for a young coach some feared wouldn’t be able to relate and communicate to his players.
In his second year, Mangini is poised to deal with the rigors of coaching in New York, and as a New England disciple is unmoved by the pressure that comes with success. Mangini, or Man-genius as he was termed by the local media last season, is a refreshing version of his championship mentor with a brilliant football mind and a passion for no-nonsense, smart, tough football and has built a team in his image. Most importantly, the team believes in him and would follow him into the gates of hell if he told them it would help them win a football game.
Then, there was, theoretically, Mangini’s best act as head coach; the hiring of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. At the time a 32-year-old quarterbacks coach, there was serious doubt raised in the media when Mangini plucked the son of legendary coach Marty Schottenheimer from the San Diego Chargers.
Many wondered aloud if Schottenheimer, like Mangini, was ready for such a heavy burden at such a young age. Jets fans alike seemed worried that the younger Schottenheimer would bring to the Jets the rigid, run-based system his father ran in San Diego and a system fans were all to familiar with (and sick of) from the Herman Edwards/Paul Hackett regime.
Schottenheimer proved beyond ready, assembling a flexible and creative offense based around multiple pre-snap movements and a controlled no-huddle that allowed cerebral quarterback Chad Pennington to change plays at the line of scrimmage. Give Schottenheimer credit for fabricating a running attack that, although not wildly successful, was consistent in its approach. The Jets run/pass split was almost 50% for the season, despite almost 70% of first downs coming through the air.
Marty’s son was such a success in his first year that he was a finalist for the Miami Dolphins’ head coaching job before removing himself from the search.
This season, with a weaponized rushing attack featuring the newly-acquired Jones and Pennington and others in their second year in Schottenheimer’s system, the possibilities and potential for Schottenheimer’s offense are exponentially better than they were at this time last year.
5. How do you see the Jets at the end of the season? Contenders, Pretenders or Cellar Dwellers?
This is a tough answer to formulate.
On one hand, the Jets have improved at three of their biggest weak spots (RB, CB, ILB), but on the other they still lack a true nose guard, a compliment to Shaun Ellis and face one of the league’s toughest schedules in the league after facing the league’s worst last season. Also, while they improved talent-wise in the back seven, Revis and Harris are still rookies and fans and media alike must remember that the success rate for those players in their first years is vastly below the level of expectations being heaped upon them.
The Jets have improved enough to finish 10-6, but have a tough enough schedule to end 8-8. I think the AFC East will look something like this:
AFC EAST
New England        13-3
New York Jets      9-7
Buffalo Bills            7-9
Miami Dolphins     6-10
A competitive division no doubt, but the Jets are such a team that an injury in the wrong spot or a slip against a team they should (and need) to beat could turn them into a .500 team.
We won’t have to wait long to figure out if I’m right, though. The Jets first four games (New England, at Baltimore, Miami at Buffalo) features two legitimate AFC contenders and three divisional games against teams that always play the Jets tough, no matter the year. If the Jets come out of that stretch with 2 wins, Jets fans should be happy, if they come out with 3 wins, Jets fans should be ecstatic and increasingly optimistic about the team’s playoff chances.
Overall, I list the Jets as contenders, but for the playoffs and nothing more.
6. What game(s) are you looking forward to the most this season? Why?
It seems as though the scheduling gods have given Jets fans a gift and a curse this season; a very hard schedule but numerous opponents any football fan would love to watch in person.
A) Week 1, September 9th, New England at New York Jets
When you open against your chief division rival, at home, a year after they ousted you in the playoffs, that game always has to be the first one circled on the calendar.
Year 2 of Mangini/Belichick rivalry will certainly take the majority of the headlines, but I’m looking forward to other things; Rhodes vs. Tom Brady, Schottenheimer’s offense vs. Belichick’s defense, the first regular season game of Thomas Jones, Cotchery vs. the New England secondary.
Not to mention, it’s the season opener and the first time the games will count in almost 7 months.
B) Week 4, September 30th, New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
As you’ve heard me say before, I went to the University at Buffalo and for six years now I’ve been attending these games and I only in school for five of them.
It’s become a regular tradition for my father to schlep up the 80 and the 81 to the 90 for 6 hours one weekend a fall. Now, I’ll get to make the trip back and forth with him and meet up with what has become a ritual and growing cast of characters (mostly Bills fans).
The Bills/Jets games are always great games because of the atmosphere, the opposing fans and the usually good contests that come from these two teams matching up. Thomas Jones should tear apart the Bills’ rebuilt defense and Pennington will have a field day in that secondary.
Plus, there’s nothing quite like winning in Buffalo as a Jets fans. Trust me; you really have to experience it to understand it.
C) Week 11, November 18th, Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Because I still hate Doug Brien.
D) Week 17, December 30th, Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
Benedict Edwards is back and I’m sure Jets fans will have a warm, loving reception for the man who must have been taking lessons from Belichick on how to quit in New York.
Besides the fact that there’s nothing better than a football game in the cold, snowy weather of December (kidding, here), this may just be 2007’s Oakland game where fans brave the conditions for a chance to see the Jets clinch a playoff berth.
Okay, so it’s mostly because Herm’s coming back and I want to see Mangini pull a Remember the Titans on the Edwards’ Chiefs; to borrow a phrase from Coach Bill Yost, “Run up the score…Leave no doubt!”
Posted in Jets Thoughts |

July 29th, 2007 at 8:47 pm
[…] Jets fan should check out this roundtable discussion. It mentions that the Jets’ biggest weakness going into the season is stopping the run, while […]